Pretend that you are a Russian war strategist — what would you do now?

05 May 2022

A preliminary premise

It is unforgivable to kill and maim tens of thousands of people for no achieved (or achievable) strategic purpose.

I suspect that the Russian Federation is embarked on such a path, with voluminous NATO and US assistance, in Ukraine.

Today, let's put ourselves in a Russian strategist's shoes

Let's figure out how to avoid having a huge pile of extinguished Ukrainian and Russian lives that sadly went to no effective purpose.

Let's pull our Russian head out of our possibly presently bungling ass. And thereby, assist the Great Satan in pulling its own out of its certainly darkly stinky place.

A Great Powers analysis

What follows takes a traditional Great Powers-in-conflict form.

This analysis disagrees with American pundits' nitwitted judgementalism that argues, without any analysis at all, that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was morally and strategically unjustified.

It would, in truth, be difficult to come up with a historically more justified example of Great Power intervention than the Russo-Ukrainian War. Which, of course, is exactly why the United States was successful in provoking the Federation's intervention.

Outlining the current situation

The Great Satan has repeatedly implicitly announced its intentions to start World War 3. See here, for example.

Indicatively recently, American Speaker of the House of Representatives — Nancy Pelosi — made it clear (during her political team's visit to Poland) that the United States is aiming to enlarge the Russo-Ukrainian War, one way or another:

Enlargement is necessary because (said Mother Nancy) bullies are bad.

And because people — who know nothing at all about existential combat, like Mother Nan — should nevertheless vigorously stir the Murder Pot in presumed Jesus's name.

For a retch-worthy visual of this absurdly silly person holding forth, see the beginning of the following video:

Alex Christoforou, Pelosi says "WE" are fighting Russia — Overnight missile strikes — Hi, My name is Javelina, Update 1, YouTube (04 May 2022)

These are the twits . . .

. . . with Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Sullivan being viciously twerpy examples of the prevailing type who are directing the United States' core contribution to Global Chaos Stimulation.

If you have not puked into your breakfast bowl yet, do so now to demonstrate your grip on sanity.

Enter our hypothetical Russian war strategist

Pretend that you are watching American war-fueling escalate (from your military position in Russia).

Presume that you agree with the Federation's leadership that American and NATO encroachment upon Russia's borders had to met with the currently ongoing de-Nazification and demilitarization processes in Ukraine.

Assume further that you are aware of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's announcement that the US is specifically aiming to reduce Russia's capability to defend itself against American military and economic aggression.

Recall your last talk with Chinese military peers, who processed the same American pronouncements and (correctly) calculated that China's name is also on the United States' list for power-elimination.

What would you recommend that President Putin do now:

as the West spews streams of weapons into Ukraine

as US satellite and intelligence information passes to Ukrainians

(including data that questionably, but reportedly locates Russian generals for execution)

while, at the same time, the American military assists in Ukraine's defense

probably including having NATO and US military commanders in-country

with further signs that the US is encouraging Poland to second front invade western Ukraine

and further

is pressuring Moldavia to acquiesce in the opening of a third front in Transnistria?

If it is aggressively hostile and physically possible, you conclude, the US is already doing it.

So, now what?

You recognize that Russia has failed to make the West take it seriously.

Russian advances in Ukraine have not gobbled enough ground to reduce the nuclear distance threat to the Federation. Thereby voiding a very significant part of President Putin's announced entering strategy. Missiles will still be able to strike Russian ground with virtually no warning.

Second, the Western world is in full-throated, weapons-providing support of Ukrainian neo-Nazism.

As a result, eliminating those Nazis that Russia currently has in its military grip is not going to change anything Nazi-related in the long run.

The rest of Ukraine's nation-ruling neo-Nazi clan are still running central and western Ukraine. They will be there to continue a weapons-bloated Afghanistan and Iraq-like insurgency forevermore.

Thus, a predominant part two of Russia's entering strategy has already disappeared over a Too-Far Hill.

Third, Russia's turtle-slow invasion of Ukraine has merely encouraged Finland and Sweden to (probably) join NATO, thereby further tilting the nearby nuclear threat against the Federation.

How should a competent Russian military strategist propose rectifying these shortfalls in the Federation's existing strategy?

Get serious or get out?

Paul Craig Roberts has been adamant in criticizing Russia's molasses-like mincing strategy in Ukraine.

Roberts was and remains fearful that this time-wasting approach would allow the West to build a propaganda tide against the Federation:

Everyone needs to understand that the neoconservatives’ ideology of hegemony is an expansionist ideology like original 20th century International Communism.

It is the American Empire that is expanding toward Russia, not Russia expanding into the West.

It is truly amazing how opposite from the truth the anti-Russian propaganda is.

Sooner or later the Kremlin will comprehend that Russia’s enemies are the American neoconservatives and that the pressure point on the neoconservatives is Israel.

I have been concerned for years that Russia’s low-key response to provocations brings about more and more dangerous provocations that eventually will bring Armageddon upon us.

I saw recently that the Chinese government thinks similarly when a Chinese spokesman said that China can accept no provocation from Washington as the result would be more and worse provocations.

The Kremlin’s policy of relying on reason, negotiations, and good will has not been reciprocated by the West.

The Kremlin’s limited military operation in Ukraine was not of sufficient ferocity to convince the West to abandon its policy of provocation.

It seems Washington will continue its provocations until the fatal line is crossed.

I agree.

The creep and grind approach that Russia is currently taking is effective in the short term and over comparatively short distances. But it is taking too long to remain strategically viable over the long run, given the array of growing forces against it.

The West's determination to start World War 3 builds each day. Recall that the outcome of such a war is completely unpredictable. A strategist's nightmare.

Propaganda is molding Western publics to accept that world war is a good and necessary thing. Especially so, when other people, not Americans, are being killed.

The United States is outstandingly 'good' at proxying other folks into serving the Grand Plutocracy in dead-meat fashion.

In short, the West's extended propaganda tsunami is probably not going to work to the Russian Federation's survival advantage.

At least not, absent China's willingness to open a second front in Taiwan. Which seems unlikely, given China's historically demonstrated aversion to military excursions and its obvious prioritization of economic power.

Arguable Russian strategic wimpiness

Consider that Russia has allowed Ukrainian president Zelensky — an actor initially puppetized by a Ukrainian oligarch and now handled by the United States — to go and say whatever the US, NATO and his strings-holding Nazis want.

Zelensky's extended survival still occurring, despite the fact that Russian intelligence almost certainly knows where he is most of the time.

Second, Kyiv has become a fashionable place for Western leaders to (they claim) gather, as they nauseatingly prattle about Russia's many alleged evils.

This lapse in Russian self-defense occurring, despite the fact that the city — and those visiting trouble-enhancers — are within easy striking distance of Federation missiles.

Why let (on-video drug-using) Zelensky — whose government has already said that Russia's capitulation is the only thing that it will negotiate — continue to make a display of the Russian Federation's presumed weakness?

From the Russian standpoint, Zelensky is strategically useless today as a presumably respect-worthy head of state. Any negotiated paper that he signs, will be worthless on its face.

Arguable strategic wimpiness enters because President Putin has threatened strikes on command and control centers, yet has visibly failed to carry the most strategically significant of those strikes out.

The usual excuse for this lapse is that Russians consider Ukrainians kin. Well, those Nazi-indulging kin are and have been killing a whole lot of your Russian folk.

Cowardly prudence — and weakness of will — are the only signals that Putin is sending with these unaccomplished threats of retaliation.

In this situation — amid which the West has already explicitly said that it plans to stamp Russia out — displaying weakness of the threats-only kind is not an effective World War 3 avoiding signal.

Escalate or leave?

In our hypothetical Russian strategist shoes, the obvious goals are to:

weaken Europe's vassal commitment to the United States by forcefully instilling fear of economic and military destruction into their literally mush-filled brains

and

alerting the massively arrogant and ignorant American population to the fact that they are about to get 'crispified' by nuclear strikes upon their homeland.

One could initiate the components of this plan by destroying Ukrainian command centers, offing Zelensky, blasting any Americans and Europeans who visit Kyiv and (possibly) letting idiot-led Poland know that it is in the line of fire.

The Poland component to be achieved by striking Poland's weapons shipments to Ukraine, while those are still on Polish soil.

The intended message being that:

Russia does not fear NATO

(ergo the Poland strikes)

and

you other interfering, Nazi-loving nations, are next.

Our strategist concludes that

Russia's strategic message needs to pose a question:

How far do y'all effete anti-Russian fools really want to take this?

In his view (and mine) the US does not have a psyche existentially committed enough to sustain massive human losses over such a completely unnecessary, US-created Great Powers competition.

Neither do any among Europe's suiciding, mostly shit-for-brains countries.

For pertinent cultural perspective — if I were this hypothetical Russian strategist, and the United States was killing my country's generals — I would be absolutely certain to return the favor in magnified form.

Recall that US general officers lead from the rear.

Russians from the front.

In that fact alone, we see a measure of the contrasting moral worth of both nations' leaders.

Our hypothetical Russian strategist would be soul-married to such a distinction in quality. He would, therefore, conclude that:

It is existential.

Let's begin to act like it.

The moral? — If you are a 1776 and 1787-grounded American patriot . . .

. . . pray that our public comes to see that we are suiciding our own country via this neocon-sponsored, maniacal insanity.

This conflict is not just about Russian and Chinese survival. It is about our own.

We survive together, or not (to any meaningfully comfortable degree) at all.

Be sane.

PeteFree.com

Pretend that you are a Russian war strategist — what would you do now?