Did Russians overestimate their military capability in Ukraine? — and a comment about loss of face on two sides

27 February 2022

Today's theme

A glimmer of tiny hope regarding Ukraine.

Followed by an observation about supply lines.

Hope?

From two sources, regarding the adjacent sides to the Ukrainian conflict:

Ukraine confirmed the meeting with Russia in Gomel, Belarus on Sunday. The confirmation came after Russia gave a deadline to Ukraine.

A Russian delegation has arrived in Belarus for talks with Ukraine, a Kremlin spokesperson was quoted by the Ifax news agency as saying on Sunday, the first negotiations since Russia started its invasion on Feb. 24.

Notice that

Neither NATO — nor American — Adam Henrys will be in Belarus to predictably provoke more conflict.

Diplomatic progress may now be possible.

Especially so because it must now be obvious to Ukrainian president Zelensky that his puppet-master American handlers will not be vigorously sending troops to Ukraine's rescue.

Instead, the American Imperium has (reportedly) removed Russia from the US-controlled global banking system.

And also, probably ineffectively, tried to seize (meaning steal) Russian President Putin's ill-gotten lucre.

As usual, American sanctions will mainly punish only ordinary and blameless folks.

Sanctions of these kinds do little to resolve conflicts, except exacerbate them.

Cowards, blowhards and Robber Barons love sanctions.

You can imagine how Ukraine and President Zelensky feel about this NATO-US form of (purely alleged) rescue.

Russian supply line issue

Competent logistics are the foundation to any invasion's success.

The Russians may be lacking necessary supply lines in Ukraine. Even after weeks of planning.

Maybe this war stuff isn't as easy as it looks, huh boys?

Marko Marjanović — a self-styled anarchist writing at Anti-Empire, who also appears to be a thoughtful person — published the following, today:

[S]o far the Russian forces in the east are stuck at Kharkov. Unable so far to either take it or go around it.

A city of 1.5 million, Kharkov is a big obstacle indeed, but the lack of Russian preparedness here nonetheless seems confusing. The existence of this sprawling city is not a secret and could not have come as a surprise to the Russians.

Doing armchair generalship (with only bits of information) it seems obvious they should have planned to either storm it in force from day one, or should have moved decisively to bypass it also from day one.

So far they have ended up with the worst of both worlds, neither fully avoiding it nor being able to clear it.

The option of storming it is not very appealing due to political considerations. It could further alienate Ukrainians as well as the Russian homefront.

That however doesn’t explain why the Russians haven’t been able to race past it instead.

There is something that might explain it.

There is considerable indication by now that Russian forces are having severe supply issues. They run out of fuel and have been filmed raiding supermarkets to feed themselves.

This scrounging for supplies is a distraction and leaves them vulnerable. Moreover while ripping off Aldi is a way to get food it can’t replenish your ammo.

Let's assume that Marjanović's hypothesis is correct

Why would someone plan a major invasion, but overlook the need to fuel and ammunize (to coin a verb) it?

Could it be that Russia has put (a) too much emphasis on technologically advanced missiles and electronics in warfare and (b) too little on the old-fashioned idea of properly supplying troops?

Thus far — in the Ukraine tragedy

Russia, like the United States, seems to have opened itself up to a huge loss of face:

Russians by looking militarily unimpressive.

And the US — who set Ukraine up to be attacked and then almost certainly broke American protection assurances to it — passes as both cowardly and untrustworthy.

What a denouement.

The world's two currently longest-standing military rivals are, arguably, losing significant prestige over the should-have-been avoided situation in Ukraine.

The moral? — Russia may still be able to salvage a strategic accomplishment . . .

. . . if its invasion has been just enough to (finally) get Ukraine's attention, regarding the Russian demand that Ukraine become reliably neutral.

Messy and unimpressive, but effective, works in geopolitics.

PeteFree.com

Did Russians overestimate their military capability in Ukraine? — and a comment about loss of face on two sides