Walter Hickey’s Comparison of Russia’s Interests in Syria — with the United States’ in Israel — Is the Kind of Educational Geopolitical Analysis that almost Never Happens in the Ignorant American Media

22 June 2012

Do we Americans ever wonder — in an analytical geopolitical sense — why Russia supports a murderous tyrant like Syrian President, Bashar Hafez al-Assad?

It would seem not, if we go by the simple-minded, black versus white coverage that the American media and government give the issue.

Both characterize the Russians and Chinese (who favor leaving Syria alone, despite al-Assad’s atrocities upon his own people) as heartless, anti-democratic adversaries cut from the same vicious cloth.

Yet, anyone with half a brain should recognize that international issues are virtually never so cut and dried.

Geopolitics is about power. In the modern world, it is almost never that one nation does something purely out of spite. Or out of unalloyed visceral “badness” of character.

This is certainly true in regard to Syria.

There are historically based, geopolitical interests at stake in the Syrian slaughter that have nothing to do with the “goodness” or “badness” of the international actors involved on opposing sides of the confrontation.

Walter Hickey, interning as a military and defense analyst at Business Insider, has written a sound analysis of what is really at stake for Russia in this region.

Understanding the geopolitics of the situation opens our eyes to the complexity of international relations.

Comprehension makes us less likely to go off half-cocked.

Citation

Walter Hickey, Why Russia Is Extremely Protective Of Syria, Business Insider (21 June 2012)

What Walter Hickey and Business Insider said

Putting ourselves in someone else’s shoes is often a good route to better understanding. Mr. Hickey simply compared Russian interests in Syria with American interests in Israel.

The parallel should open American eyes to why Russian President Putin opposes American calls for intervention in Syria:

Our opinion is that — from a strategic perspective — Syria serves a similar role for Russia that Israel serves for the United States.

In that light, Russia's current behavior in Syria makes total sense.

Specifics that support Business Insider’s conclusion

Hickey’s analysis will appeal to the comparatively few people who still understand traditional balance of power concepts.

Walter Hickey points out that the parallel between Russia in Syria and the United States in Israel can be summarized in five general, somewhat overlapping categories.

I paraphrase these as:

foreign military bases;

financial investments;

weapons trade;

geographically important footholds;

and

surrogates who are willing to act crazy, when necessary.

Military bases

In my historian’s view, the fact that Russia’s only Mediterranean naval base is in the Syrian port of Tartus explains everything else.

Naval access to warm water is the historical basis of one vital prong of Russian power projection around the world.

According to Hickey, Israel presents the United States with similar projection opportunities. It is a site for stored military equipment and the missile warning system at Dimona.

Here, Business Insider seems to overlook the immense importance of the almost fraternal relationship between the United States and Israel that would permit massive American military buildups there almost overnight.

Financial investments

Hickey notes that Russian exports to Syria, so far this year, amount to a billion dollars plus. Even by 2009, it had more than $20 billion there at stake.

Stoitransgaz, a natural gas construction operation, alone “has $1.1 billion in investments in Syria and a staff of more than 80 Russians working there.”

On the American side of the balance of power equation, Hickey estimates that the United States has given Israel $3 billion in grants “and there is a substantial interplay between Israeli companies and U.S. businesses.”

It may be that Business Insider has much underestimated the financial stake that the United States has in Israel’s survival. No other nation on the planet has been so visibly and unquestioningly seen as an American outpost in a hostile world.

Arms trade

According to Hickey, Russia had to cancel billions of dollars of Syrian debt in order to get access to the naval base at Tartus.

And Russia currently has contracted to sell the Syrians about $4 billion in armaments. “Nearly all of Syria's jet fighters, helicopters, and missile systems are Soviet or Russian made.”

The U.S. provides Israel with about $3 billion in military arms and finances annually, included its Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense System.

Regional footholds

Syria is Russia’s entry to the Middle East. Israel is America’s.

Given the geopolitical importance of the region, no great power can afford to be entirely locked out.

The “crazy ally” factor

This is the most insightful aspect of Walter Hickey’s essay:

Perhaps the most interesting similarity between Israel and Syria — philosophically, two extremely disparate nations — is their mutual devotion to leaving every single option open for national defense.

Neither country has signed the Chemical Weapons Convention. U.S. Congress Office of Technological Assessment has recorded that Israel is widely reported to have chemical and biological weapons programs, and Syria is known to have stockpiles of Sarin and other chemical weapons.

So essentially, each nation is willing to do what neither the U.S. nor Russia is capable of doing.

[E]ach is willing to do whatever it takes to win, something that has tied the hands of the U.S. and Russia.

That kind of ally can't hurt to have on your team, strategically.

The moral? — Seen in the intelligent way that Walter Hickey presents it, it is obvious why Russia will not tolerate anti-Syrian meddling by the American-led anti-Assad coalition

Just imagine how Americans would feel, if someone advocated armed intervention and regime change in Israel.

Given the vital Russian interests at stake in Syria, it is not surprising that the United States faces determined resistance from President Putin in our attempt to overthrow President al-Assad’s tyranny.

This is not, essentially, about Syrians being murdered. It is about Great Power maneuvering.

Seen that way, some of the black and whiteness of the issue disappears. And we are left with the kind of amoral geopolitical analysis that historically drove world events.

Walter Hickey’s Business Insider essay is an educational gift to Americans. Would they only read it.

PeteFree.com

Walter Hickey’s Comparison of Russia’s Interests in Syria — with the United States’ in Israel — Is the Kind of Educational Geopolitical Analysis that almost Never Happens in the Ignorant American Media